AFL · ROUND 22 · MCG
Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 59% chance
MEL 41%59% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 9.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 26.7 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 101 / inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 24.9 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 6.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 104 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 24.0 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 88 / inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 23.1 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 90 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.0 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.7 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 108 / inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Christian Salem | CHB | 19.7 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 78 / outside our 90% range: 31 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 19.6 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 19.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 17.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 17.2 / inside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 15.7 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 14.5 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 14.4 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.0 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.8 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 13.0 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.8 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 12.6 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 70 / outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 12.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Bayley Fritsch | CHF | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPR | 11.5 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.7 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 9.9 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 59 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Matthew Jefferson | FPL | 8.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 50 / outside our 90% range: 14 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 24.8 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 99 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 23.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.1 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 22.2 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 82 / outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.7 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 83 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 20.3 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 20.3 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 19.2 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Hayden Young | R | 18.2 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.0 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 16.8 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 1.0 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 15.4 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 13.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 13.2 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.9 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 61 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 12.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 68 / outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 53 / inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.0 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.1 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 47 |