AFL · ROUND 22 · MCG
Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 59% chance
MEL 41%59% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 9.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 26.7 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.3 to 37.1 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 24.0 | 20.2 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 23.1 | 19.3 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 67% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Christian Salem | CHB | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.3 | 10.5 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 19.6 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 17.2 | 13.8 to 20.6 | 8.5 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 14.5 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 14.4 | 11.3 to 17.6 | 6.4 to 22.5 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | CHF | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPR | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | FPL | 8.0 | 5.5 to 10.5 | 1.6 to 14.4 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 56% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 23.6 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.7 to 33.5 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 15% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 23.1 | 19.2 to 26.9 | 13.3 to 32.9 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 20.3 | 16.7 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.6 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 20.3 | 16.7 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.6 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 19.2 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.1 to 28.3 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 18.2 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.4 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.2 to 23.7 | 49% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 13.5 | 10.5 to 16.6 | 5.7 to 21.4 | 34% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.7 | 2.4 to 15.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.2 | 4.8 to 9.6 | 1.1 to 13.3 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |