AFL · ROUND 22 · MCG
Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 59% chance
MEL 41%59% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 9.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 108 | 92 to 125 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 92 | 76 to 108 | 53 to 131 | 86% | 75% | 57% | 39% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 49% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Christian Salem | CHB | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 31 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 20% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 22 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 30 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Bayley Fritsch | CHF | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 84 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 59 | 45 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPR | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Matthew Jefferson | FPL | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 14 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 62% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 71 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 42 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 56 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 50% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Hayden Young | R | 75 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 94 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 25 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 43% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 26 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 47 |