AFL · ROUND 22 · MCG
Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 59% chance
MEL 41%59% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 9.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 67% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 59% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 54% | 27% | 9% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 52% | 26% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 51% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 28% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 20% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.2 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 80% | 56% | 34% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 79% | 55% | 33% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 67% | 45% | 23% | 12% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 49% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 53% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 38% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 23% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |