AFL · ROUND 22 · MCG
Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 59% chance
MEL 41%59% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 9.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Lever | FB | 5.8 | 3.9 to 7.7 | 1.5 to 10.1 | 75% | 62% | 48% | 35% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 70% | 58% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 5.4 | 3.6 to 7.3 | 1.3 to 9.6 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 30% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 43% | 32% | 21% | 12% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Salem | CHB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 57% | 41% | 28% | 16% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 64% | 47% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 21% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 34% | 21% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 33% | 21% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 53% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | CHF | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 48% | 32% | 19% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 49% | 34% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | FPL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 30% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 32% | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 6.3 | 4.3 to 8.2 | 1.8 to 10.7 | 78% | 66% | 52% | 37% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.0 | 4.0 to 7.9 | 1.6 to 10.3 | 77% | 65% | 52% | 39% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 29% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.1 | 72% | 54% | 38% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.4 | 54% | 38% | 24% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 48% | 28% | 18% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 47% | 34% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 38% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 54% | 36% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 51% | 36% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 41% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 31% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 39% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 42% | 26% | 14% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |