AFL · ROUND 22 · MCG
Melbourne v Fremantle
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 1:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
FRE by 6
FRE to win, 59% chance
MEL 41%59% FRE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 4
MISS Actual margin 4 · 9.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Sparrow | C | 6.4 | 4.5 to 8.3 | 2.1 to 10.7 | 88% | 79% | 66% | 55% | 44% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.7 | 74% | 59% | 42% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 64% | 47% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Kade Chandler | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 44% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 58% | 39% | 22% | 13% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 36% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 24% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | FPR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | CHF | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 19% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Trent Rivers | HBFR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Salem | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 23% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McDonald | INT | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 66% | 52% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 47% | 28% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Shai Bolton | CHF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 54% | 35% | 19% | 9% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 50% | 31% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 39% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 40% | 23% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 24% | 12% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Murphy Reid | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Judd McVee | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 22% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 19% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | BPL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Brennan Cox | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |