AFL · ROUND 22 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 6
CAR to win, 58% chance
STK 42%58% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 44
HIT Actual margin 44 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HFFR | 28.5 | 24.3 to 32.7 | 17.8 to 39.2 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 39% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 25.4 | 21.5 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 22.3 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | INT | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | INT | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.7 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 17.2 | 13.9 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Hunter Clark | CHB | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.2 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 14.7 | 11.5 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Mitch Owens | R | 14.1 | 10.9 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | BPR | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Campbell Lake | CHF | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 10.0 | 7.2 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.0 | 24.8 to 33.2 | 18.2 to 39.8 | 97% | 89% | 73% | 43% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 27.9 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.5 | 96% | 88% | 69% | 36% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.9 | 21.9 to 29.9 | 15.6 to 36.2 | 94% | 82% | 56% | 21% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 24.6 | 20.6 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.6 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 16% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 21.4 | 17.7 to 25.1 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 20.7 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Nick Haynes | FB | 17.6 | 14.1 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 17.3 | 14.0 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Wade Derksen | BPR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.1 to 22.0 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |