AFL · ROUND 22 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 6
CAR to win, 58% chance
STK 42%58% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 44
HIT Actual margin 44 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 109 | 93 to 126 | 68 to 150 | 95% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 50% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HFFR | 108 | 91 to 124 | 67 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 75% | 62% | 48% | outside our 90% range: 11 |
| Max Hall | C | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 45% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 134 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 92 | 76 to 107 | 53 to 131 | 85% | 74% | 57% | 38% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 33% | 18% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Marcus Windhager | INT | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Mitch Owens | R | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Hunter Clark | CHB | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Ryan Byrnes | INT | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 17% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 19 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Campbell Lake | CHF | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 23 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 21% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Liam O'Connell | BPR | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 36 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 50 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 36 |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 47 | 33 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 86% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 109 |
| George Hewett | INT | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 93 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 70 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Nick Haynes | FB | 71 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 92 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 110 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 65 | 50 to 79 | 29 to 101 | 36% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Wade Derksen | BPR | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 78 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |