AFL · ROUND 22 · MARVEL STADIUM
St Kilda v Carlton
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 7:20pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 6
CAR to win, 58% chance
STK 42%58% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
CAR by 44
HIT Actual margin 44 · 38.5 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Max Hall | C | 4.3 | 2.7 to 5.9 | 0.8 to 7.8 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 25% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 54% | 34% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 59% | 38% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Campbell Lake | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Hunter Clark | CHB | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 30% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Wood | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HBFL | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Higgins | HFFL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | BPR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Anthony Caminiti | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Ryan | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Cripps | C | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.1 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 23% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Walsh | R | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 65% | 48% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Hewett | INT | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 62% | 41% | 24% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jagga Smith | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 12% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Francis Evans | HFFR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.2 to 6.2 | 59% | 38% | 21% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 40% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 53% | 33% | 19% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 2.6 | 1.4 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 33% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | INT | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 6% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Blake Acres | WL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Billy Wilson | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | FPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lewis Young | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Dean | BPL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 23% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Wade Derksen | BPR | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Haynes | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |