AFL · ROUND 22 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 39
SYD to win, 92% chance
SYD 92%8% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 97
HIT Actual margin 97 · 58.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 32.3 | 27.9 to 36.7 | 21.0 to 43.6 | 99% | 96% | 85% | 63% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 27.8 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 27.6 | 23.5 to 31.7 | 17.0 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 27.2 | 23.1 to 31.2 | 16.7 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 27.1 | 23.0 to 31.2 | 16.6 to 37.5 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 22.2 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.8 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 18.0 | 14.6 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| James Jordon | INT | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 23.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| William Green | RK | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 24.9 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 97% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 24.7 | 20.8 to 28.7 | 14.6 to 34.8 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 23.8 | 19.9 to 27.6 | 13.9 to 33.7 | 96% | 81% | 49% | 17% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 20.4 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.0 | 7.4 to 24.1 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.2 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | HBFR | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | FPR | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.8 | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.4 | 2.8 to 16.6 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 9.5 | 6.9 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |