AFL · ROUND 22 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 39
SYD to win, 92% chance
SYD 92%8% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 97
HIT Actual margin 97 · 58.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 119 | 103 to 136 | 78 to 161 | 98% | 94% | 88% | 78% | 65% | inside our 50% range: 135 |
| Chad Warner | R | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 110 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 57% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 60 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 39% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 77% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 119 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 25% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 53% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| James Jordon | INT | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| William Green | RK | 58 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 87 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 97 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 106 | 90 to 122 | 66 to 146 | 93% | 86% | 72% | 60% | 45% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 96 | 80 to 112 | 56 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | outside our 90% range: 140 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 90 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 34% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 87 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | outside our 90% range: 48 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 86 | 70 to 102 | 48 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Willem Drew | R | 86 | 70 to 102 | 48 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 111 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 79% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 103 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 60 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | - |
| Jacob Wehr | HBFR | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 55 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Alex Van Wyk | FPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 51 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27 |