AFL · ROUND 22 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 39
SYD to win, 92% chance
SYD 92%8% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 97
HIT Actual margin 97 · 58.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 2.8 | 1.9 to 3.8 | 0.5 to 5.1 | 84% | 60% | 44% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.9 | 72% | 49% | 28% | 14% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 67% | 45% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 49% | 24% | 8% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 67% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 48% | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 54% | 20% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 24% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| William Green | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 26% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Jordon | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 56% | 29% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | FPR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 39% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 40% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 17% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | - |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |