AFL · ROUND 22 · SCG
Sydney Swans v Port Adelaide
Sat 8 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 39
SYD to win, 92% chance
SYD 92%8% PA
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 97
HIT Actual margin 97 · 58.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 6.8 | 4.7 to 8.9 | 2.1 to 11.5 | 84% | 72% | 58% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 60% | 43% | 31% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.1 | 68% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 62% | 45% | 31% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Lewis Melican | BPR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 50% | 30% | 19% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.2 | 0.7 to 8.3 | 51% | 31% | 20% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 55% | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 36% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Wicks | HBFR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 39% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.6 | 34% | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Hamling | INT | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 29% | 17% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 3.2 | 1.7 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 28% | 16% | 9% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 3.0 | 1.6 to 4.4 | 0.0 to 6.1 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Billy Cootee | FPR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 18% | 10% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Hayden McLean | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 21% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| James Jordon | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| William Green | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 6.7 | 4.6 to 8.7 | 2.0 to 11.3 | 83% | 72% | 56% | 44% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Darcy Byrne-Jones | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 60% | 44% | 29% | 19% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 53% | 35% | 22% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 33% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FF | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 30% | 19% | 11% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.2 | 38% | 22% | 11% | 5% | 3% | - |
| Will Lorenz | INT | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 22% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | HBFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Joe Berry | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 24% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Moraes | WL | 2.5 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | FPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |