AFL · ROUND 22 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 2:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 76% chance
WCE 24%76% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 0.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harley Reid | RR | 27.8 | 23.7 to 32.0 | 17.2 to 38.4 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 27.1 | 23.1 to 31.2 | 16.7 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 27.0 | 22.9 to 31.1 | 16.5 to 37.5 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFR | 25.0 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.1 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 22.2 | 18.5 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.9 | 92% | 69% | 33% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFL | 21.8 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 21.0 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.6 to 30.4 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Liam Duggan | WL | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.8 | 9.4 to 27.2 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPL | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 49% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.4 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Tom Gross | INT | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.1 | 3.3 to 17.4 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.9 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 31.5 | 27.1 to 35.9 | 20.3 to 42.7 | 99% | 95% | 83% | 59% | 30% | inside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 28.2 | 24.0 to 32.3 | 17.5 to 38.8 | 96% | 89% | 71% | 38% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 35.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 22.4 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 31.0 | 88% | 63% | 27% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 19.7 | 16.2 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 19.5 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.4 to 28.6 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.9 to 26.4 | 70% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.0 | 50% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 14.2 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 12.9 | 9.9 to 16.0 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.2 to 20.5 | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachlan Sullivan | INT | 12.5 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 11.6 | 8.8 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Daniel McStay | CHF | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.9 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FF | 10.9 | 8.1 to 13.7 | 3.7 to 18.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 10.3 | 7.6 to 13.0 | 3.3 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Noah Howes | FB | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 9.7 | 7.0 to 12.3 | 2.8 to 16.5 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |