AFL · ROUND 22 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 2:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 76% chance
WCE 24%76% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 0.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Waterman | FF | 2.4 | 1.5 to 3.3 | 0.3 to 4.5 | 81% | 58% | 35% | 17% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 64% | 35% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 30% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 43% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 23% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Gross | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Duggan | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel McStay | CHF | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 3.8 | 71% | 47% | 27% | 13% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 67% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 52% | 25% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 69% | 38% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 57% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 39% | 14% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | C | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 41% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Sullivan | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 41% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 16% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Howes | FB | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |