AFL · ROUND 22 · OPTUS STADIUM
West Coast Eagles v Collingwood
Sun 9 Aug 2026, 2:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
COL by 19
COL to win, 76% chance
WCE 24%76% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
COL by 19
HIT Actual margin 19 · 0.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
West Coast Eagles
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Graham | HFFR | 5.7 | 3.9 to 7.5 | 1.7 to 9.8 | 84% | 72% | 60% | 48% | 34% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Elliot Yeo | C | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.4 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 72% | 55% | 40% | 27% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Harley Reid | RR | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 59% | 41% | 23% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tim Kelly | R | 3.5 | 2.1 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.7 | 50% | 28% | 16% | 11% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Willem Duursma | HFFL | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.2 to 6.4 | 52% | 33% | 19% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey J. Williams | RK | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 48% | 29% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Milan Murdock | FPL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 51% | 32% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Cooper Duff-Tytler | FPR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bo Allan | WR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Cole | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 28% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Brady Hough | BPR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brandon Starcevich | BPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Liam Duggan | WL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Herbert | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 17% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Gross | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jack Williams | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom McCarthy | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Liam Baker | HBFL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 26% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jobe Shanahan | CHF | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Lindsay | INT | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 22% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Waterman | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tylar Young | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhett Bazzo | FB | 1.2 | 0.3 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Long | C | 5.2 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 77% | 62% | 45% | 31% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 69% | 50% | 37% | 24% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.3 | 60% | 42% | 27% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 3.7 | 2.3 to 5.2 | 0.5 to 7.0 | 59% | 41% | 24% | 13% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.8 | 0.3 to 6.5 | 58% | 37% | 21% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | HFFL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.3 to 6.6 | 60% | 40% | 23% | 15% | 9% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 3.2 | 1.9 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 10% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel McStay | CHF | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.3 | 0.1 to 5.9 | 44% | 26% | 13% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 28% | 16% | 9% | 4% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Angus Anderson | FF | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 28% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 34% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 33% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Lachlan Sullivan | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFR | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Steele Sidebottom | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| William Hayes | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie West | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Liam Puncher | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Roan Steele | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Howes | FB | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |