AFL · ROUND 22 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 15
WB to win, 71% chance
WB 71%29% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 27.1 | 23.0 to 31.2 | 16.6 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 26.8 | 22.8 to 30.9 | 16.4 to 37.3 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 28% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.7 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 23.7 | 19.8 to 27.5 | 13.8 to 33.6 | 94% | 76% | 42% | 16% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 21.2 | 17.5 to 24.9 | 11.8 to 30.7 | 88% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 19.9 | 16.3 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.1 | 84% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 15.5 | 12.3 to 18.8 | 7.2 to 23.8 | 50% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 13.7 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 13.0 | 10.0 to 16.0 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPR | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.7 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.6 | 27.3 to 36.0 | 20.4 to 42.8 | 99% | 96% | 83% | 59% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 27.4 | 23.3 to 31.5 | 16.9 to 37.9 | 95% | 87% | 66% | 33% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 27.2 | 23.1 to 31.3 | 16.7 to 37.7 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 26.7 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.1 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 24.5 | 20.6 to 28.4 | 14.4 to 34.5 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 21% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 30.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.4 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.2 | 86% | 59% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 20.3 | 16.7 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.7 to 27.6 | 75% | 36% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.3 to 25.4 | 66% | 27% | 7% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 16.7 | 13.4 to 20.0 | 8.1 to 25.3 | 65% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Griffin Logue | BPR | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Jack Darling | RR | 12.0 | 9.0 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 11.2 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.5 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |