AFL · ROUND 22 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 15
WB to win, 71% chance
WB 71%29% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 104 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 91% | 85% | 70% | 58% | 41% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 99 |
| Tim English | RK | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 54 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 93 | 77 to 108 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 48 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 55% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 29% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 66 | 51 to 80 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 55 | 41 to 70 | 20 to 90 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jordan Croft | FPR | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 116 | 100 to 133 | 75 to 158 | 97% | 93% | 85% | 74% | 60% | inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 89% | 79% | 66% | 52% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 99 | 83 to 115 | 60 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 64% | 51% | 33% | inside our 90% range: 139 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 97 | 81 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 46% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 89 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 87 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 115 | 61% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 108 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 55% | 38% | 22% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 42 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Jack Darling | RR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 88 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 47% | 30% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 61 | 47 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Griffin Logue | BPR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 46 | 32 to 59 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 74 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 61 |