AFL · ROUND 22 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne
Thu 6 Aug 2026, 7:30pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
MISS
OUR TIP
WB by 15
WB to win, 71% chance
WB 71%29% NM
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
NM by 23
MISS Actual margin 23 · 37.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 2.5 | 1.6 to 3.4 | 0.4 to 4.7 | 83% | 59% | 36% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 48% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Rhylee West | FPL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Bontempelli | C | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 57% | 23% | 6% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rory Lobb | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 60% | 24% | 7% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Richards | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Dolan | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 22% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Davidson | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Freijah | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 22% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tim English | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Coffield | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 69% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 62% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.2 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Darling | RR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 31% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 17% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 13% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |