AFL · ROUND 23 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 36
BRI to win, 90% chance
BRI 90%10% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lachie Neale | R | 30.7 | 26.3 to 35.0 | 19.6 to 41.7 | 98% | 93% | 80% | 55% | 22% | outside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 30.2 | 25.9 to 34.5 | 19.2 to 41.2 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 52% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 27.6 | 23.5 to 31.7 | 17.0 to 38.2 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 24.1 | 20.2 to 27.9 | 14.1 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 52% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.0 | 13.4 to 33.0 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | C | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.2 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 21.6 | 17.8 to 25.3 | 12.0 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.6 | 7.9 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 15.8 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Conor McKenna | HFFR | 13.3 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 12.6 | 9.6 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.2 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 12.3 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Oscar Allen | INT | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noah Anderson | C | 28.7 | 24.6 to 32.9 | 18.0 to 39.5 | 97% | 89% | 72% | 41% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 28.1 | 23.9 to 32.2 | 17.4 to 38.7 | 96% | 89% | 70% | 37% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 26.2 | 22.2 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 83% | 58% | 23% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 25.5 | 21.5 to 29.5 | 15.3 to 35.7 | 98% | 88% | 60% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 20.8 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WL | 18.4 | 14.9 to 21.8 | 9.5 to 27.3 | 74% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.7 | 8.6 to 26.0 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 17.0 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 16.3 | 13.0 to 19.7 | 7.9 to 24.8 | 62% | 25% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 13.6 | 10.5 to 16.7 | 5.7 to 21.5 | 35% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Ben Long | WR | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 10.1 | 7.4 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.1 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 9.9 | 7.2 to 12.6 | 3.0 to 16.9 | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Ethan Read | HFFR | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 8.7 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.1 to 15.3 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 8.4 | 5.8 to 10.9 | 1.9 to 14.9 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |