AFL · ROUND 23 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 36
BRI to win, 90% chance
BRI 90%10% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 105 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 85% | 72% | 59% | 44% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 105 | 89 to 122 | 65 to 146 | 92% | 85% | 72% | 59% | 44% | outside our 90% range: 51 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 105 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 114 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 53% | 36% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 104 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| Levi Ashcroft | C | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 117 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 35 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 66 | 51 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 87 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Conor McKenna | HFFR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 58 | 44 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Oscar Allen | INT | 51 | 37 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 44 | 31 to 58 | 10 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Rowell | RR | 105 | 89 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 90% range: 85 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 35% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Touk Miller | R | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 39% | 25% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 83 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 121 | 76% | 58% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 64 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 77 | 62 to 92 | 39 to 114 | 60% | 43% | 29% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Sam Clohesy | WL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 26% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 32 |
| Ben Long | WR | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 12% | 5% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Ben King | FPR | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 35 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Ethan Read | HFFR | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 39 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 43 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |