AFL · ROUND 23 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 36
BRI to win, 90% chance
BRI 90%10% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Morris | CHF | 2.8 | 1.9 to 3.8 | 0.6 to 5.1 | 84% | 60% | 45% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 54% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 32% | 15% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar Allen | INT | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 55% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Conor McKenna | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 30% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 24% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 36% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harris Andrews | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben King | FPR | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.3 | 80% | 56% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 70% | 39% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Long | WR | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 48% | 24% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ethan Read | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 38% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 26% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |