AFL · ROUND 23 · GABBA
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 4:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
BRI by 36
BRI to win, 90% chance
BRI 90%10% GCS
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
BRI by 42
HIT Actual margin 42 · 5.9 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Brisbane Lions
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harris Andrews | FB | 7.2 | 5.1 to 9.3 | 2.4 to 12.0 | 85% | 74% | 63% | 50% | 37% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dayne Zorko | HBFR | 6.5 | 4.5 to 8.5 | 1.9 to 11.1 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 41% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ryan Lester | BPR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.2 | 1.7 to 10.7 | 78% | 65% | 51% | 36% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Darcy Wilmot | HBFL | 6.1 | 4.1 to 8.0 | 1.7 to 10.5 | 76% | 62% | 48% | 34% | 22% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jaspa Fletcher | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 62% | 45% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Gardiner | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 65% | 47% | 32% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Noah Answerth | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 64% | 46% | 32% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Josh Dunkley | RR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Lachie Neale | R | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 1.0 to 8.9 | 60% | 44% | 30% | 18% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Levi Ashcroft | C | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.7 | 0.9 to 8.9 | 59% | 42% | 29% | 17% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jarrod Berry | WL | 4.8 | 3.0 to 6.5 | 0.9 to 8.7 | 61% | 44% | 30% | 20% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Will Ashcroft | INT | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 55% | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Zac Bailey | WR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 26% | 16% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Logan Morris | CHF | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 58% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Cam Rayner | FF | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 40% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Eric Hipwood | FPL | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Kai Lohmann | FPR | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 49% | 32% | 20% | 12% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Cameron | HFFL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 53% | 37% | 25% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar Allen | INT | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Darcy Fort | INT | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Conor McKenna | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 20% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Annable | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.0 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Draper | RK | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
Gold Coast SUNS
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mac Andrew | BPL | 5.9 | 4.0 to 7.8 | 1.6 to 10.2 | 77% | 65% | 50% | 38% | 25% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| John Noble | HBFR | 5.7 | 3.8 to 7.6 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 72% | 59% | 44% | 33% | 22% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Bodhi Uwland | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 70% | 58% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Sam Collins | FB | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.9 | 1.1 to 9.2 | 74% | 57% | 41% | 27% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Wil Powell | CHB | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 47% | 31% | 21% | 12% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joel Jeffrey | INT | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 41% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Noah Anderson | C | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 42% | 29% | 18% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben King | FPR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 33% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Ballard | INT | 3.6 | 2.0 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 43% | 27% | 17% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Sam Clohesy | WL | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 36% | 20% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Daniel Rioli | HBFL | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 24% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Touk Miller | R | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 37% | 23% | 13% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jed Walter | FF | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Ben Long | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 21% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Bailey Humphrey | CHF | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 25% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Beau Addinsall | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Christian Petracca | HFFL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Ethan Read | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan Gulbin | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matt Rowell | RR | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Leonardo Lombard | FPL | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Ned Moyle | RK | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Rogers | INT | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |