AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Essendon v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 41
SYD to win, 93% chance
ESS 7%93% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 5.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.8 | 25.6 to 34.1 | 18.9 to 40.8 | 98% | 91% | 78% | 49% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 24.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 27.5 | 23.4 to 31.7 | 17.0 to 38.1 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 33% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 23.4 | 19.5 to 27.2 | 13.5 to 33.2 | 94% | 75% | 41% | 13% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 22.5 | 18.8 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 20.9 | 17.3 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 19.3 | 15.7 to 22.8 | 10.2 to 28.4 | 82% | 48% | 14% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.1 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.7 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 14.8 | 11.6 to 18.0 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 14.3 | 11.1 to 17.4 | 6.2 to 22.3 | 43% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 11.5 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 24% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.5 | 7.7 to 13.2 | 3.4 to 17.6 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 30.4 | 26.1 to 34.6 | 19.3 to 41.4 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 54% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 47.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.3 | 22.2 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 84% | 58% | 24% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 29.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 25.3 | 21.3 to 29.3 | 15.1 to 35.5 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 21.9 | 18.1 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 66% | 32% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 21.1 | 17.4 to 24.8 | 11.7 to 30.5 | 87% | 61% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.3 | 10.5 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| James Jordon | FPR | 19.5 | 16.0 to 23.1 | 10.4 to 28.7 | 82% | 50% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 18.3 | 14.8 to 21.7 | 9.4 to 27.1 | 73% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 18.0 | 14.5 to 21.4 | 9.2 to 26.8 | 72% | 29% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 53% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| William Green | INT | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 10.3 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |