AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Essendon v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 41
SYD to win, 93% chance
ESS 7%93% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 5.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 114 | 98 to 131 | 73 to 156 | 96% | 91% | 84% | 70% | 58% | outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 92 | 77 to 108 | 53 to 132 | 85% | 73% | 57% | 38% | 24% | inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 91 | 76 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 74% | 56% | 38% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 85 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 63% | 41% | 26% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 43 to 120 | 71% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 55% | 37% | 22% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 114 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 120 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 37% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 73 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 112 | 95 to 128 | 70 to 152 | 95% | 89% | 80% | 66% | 54% | inside our 90% range: 147 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 105 | 89 to 121 | 65 to 145 | 92% | 85% | 71% | 59% | 43% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Chad Warner | R | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 142 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 94 | 78 to 110 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 85 | 70 to 100 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 82 | 67 to 98 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 57% | 37% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 75% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 72 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| James Jordon | FPR | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 78 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 67 | 52 to 82 | 30 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 23% | 11% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 23% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| William Green | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |