AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Essendon v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 41
SYD to win, 93% chance
ESS 7%93% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 5.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 36% | 14% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.6 | 0.8 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 63% | 32% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 33% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 29% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 11% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 23% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 13% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 3.1 | 2.1 to 4.1 | 0.7 to 5.5 | 85% | 66% | 53% | 34% | 17% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 77% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.0 | 1.2 to 2.8 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 73% | 50% | 29% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 57% | 28% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 26% | 10% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| William Green | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 21% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Jordon | FPR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 15% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 16% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |