AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Essendon v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 41
SYD to win, 93% chance
ESS 7%93% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 5.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Redman | BPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.9 | 69% | 57% | 43% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 5.4 | 3.5 to 7.2 | 1.2 to 9.5 | 70% | 53% | 38% | 27% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 35% | 24% | 14% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 62% | 46% | 27% | 17% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 46% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 46% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 4.3 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 50% | 34% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 42% | 28% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 3.9 | 2.3 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.4 | 40% | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 35% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 3.3 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 33% | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 3.1 | 1.7 to 4.5 | 0.0 to 6.3 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 6.0 | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 2.9 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.9 | 24% | 15% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 2.7 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 12% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom McCartin | FB | 6.6 | 4.5 to 8.6 | 2.0 to 11.2 | 82% | 70% | 55% | 42% | 29% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 67% | 47% | 33% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 5.0 | 3.2 to 6.8 | 1.0 to 9.0 | 68% | 48% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 4.7 | 2.9 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 52% | 37% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 4.7 | 3.0 to 6.4 | 0.8 to 8.6 | 54% | 39% | 25% | 16% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 59% | 43% | 29% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 49% | 36% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.1 | 50% | 38% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 49% | 33% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 4.2 | 2.5 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.8 | 45% | 29% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 3.8 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 45% | 31% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.4 | 50% | 35% | 24% | 13% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 44% | 27% | 15% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 8% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 40% | 24% | 14% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.8 | 0.1 to 6.6 | 35% | 22% | 13% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.7 | 0.0 to 6.5 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.0 to 6.4 | 34% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 20% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Jordon | FPR | 2.8 | 1.4 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| William Green | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |