AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Essendon v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 41
SYD to win, 93% chance
ESS 7%93% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 5.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Merrett | RR | 29.8 / inside our 90% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 114 / outside our 90% range: 71 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 27.5 / inside our 50% range: 28.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 98 / inside our 50% range: 105 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 23.4 / inside our 90% range: 32.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 5.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 92 / inside our 90% range: 123 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 22.5 / inside our 50% range: 22.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 91 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 21.1 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 20.9 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 85 / inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 19.3 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.7 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 81 / inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 18.8 / outside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 95 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 18.6 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 17.6 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 68 / inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 16.9 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 77 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 14.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 14.8 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.4 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 14.3 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 76 / outside our 90% range: 120 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 12.9 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 60 / inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 11.6 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 62 / inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 11.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 57 / inside our 50% range: 54 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 10.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.6 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 65 / inside our 50% range: 62 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 9.8 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 47 / inside our 90% range: 73 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 30.4 / outside our 90% range: 47.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 112 / inside our 90% range: 147 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 26.3 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 102 / inside our 90% range: 142 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 25.4 / inside our 50% range: 29.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 98 / inside our 50% range: 89 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 25.3 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 94 / inside our 90% range: 66 |
| Chad Warner | R | 24.9 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 103 / inside our 50% range: 106 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 21.9 / outside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 21.1 / inside our 90% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 3.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 105 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 20.0 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.6 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 19.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.2 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 82 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 19.7 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 72 |
| James Jordon | FPR | 19.5 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 50 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 18.5 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 61 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 18.3 / inside our 90% range: 14.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 80 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 18.0 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 16.6 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 76 / outside our 90% range: 33 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.7 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 63 / inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 56 / inside our 90% range: 30 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 12.1 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 57 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 67 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| William Green | INT | 11.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 37 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 10.3 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 55 / inside our 50% range: 46 |