AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Essendon v Sydney Swans
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 4:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
SYD by 41
SYD to win, 93% chance
ESS 7%93% SYD
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
SYD by 36
HIT Actual margin 36 · 5.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Essendon
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Caldwell | HFFL | 5.3 | 3.5 to 7.0 | 1.4 to 9.1 | 79% | 66% | 53% | 40% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Will Setterfield | C | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Zach Merrett | RR | 4.9 | 3.2 to 6.6 | 1.1 to 8.6 | 73% | 57% | 41% | 28% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Dyson Sharp | R | 4.5 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 0.9 to 8.1 | 67% | 50% | 35% | 24% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Archer Day-Wicks | HFFR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.6 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nick Bryan | INT | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 27% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Kako | FPL | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew McGrath | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Vigo Visentini | RK | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 28% | 14% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Harrison Jones | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Farrow | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaxon Artemis | HBFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 23% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Max Kondogiannis | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rhys Unwin | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Angus Clarke | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 21% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Archie Perkins | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 17% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Kyle Langford | FPR | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Redman | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 15% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Archie Roberts | CHB | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jaxon Prior | HBFL | 1.6 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 18% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Nate Caddy | CHF | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Peter Wright | FF | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 17% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zach Reid | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
Sydney Swans
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Errol Gulden | C | 4.4 | 2.8 to 6.0 | 0.8 to 7.9 | 72% | 58% | 39% | 25% | 15% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Isaac Heeney | RR | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.6 | 0.7 to 7.5 | 64% | 46% | 31% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Chad Warner | R | 4.0 | 2.5 to 5.5 | 0.6 to 7.4 | 63% | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| James Jordon | FPR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 43% | 25% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brodie Grundy | RK | 3.6 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.8 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Serong | WR | 3.2 | 1.8 to 4.6 | 0.2 to 6.3 | 44% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Braeden Campbell | HFFR | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.3 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 39% | 22% | 12% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Mills | BPL | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 35% | 21% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Billy Cootee | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Matt Roberts | WL | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 31% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Jesse Dattoli | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 29% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Wicks | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| William Green | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Kyle | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jake Lloyd | HFFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Papley | FPL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 19% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Riley Bice | CHB | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 25% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Dane Rampe | BPR | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 23% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Joel Hamling | HBFR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Logan McDonald | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 13% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Blakey | HBFL | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Charlie Curnow | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McCartin | FB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |