AFL · ROUND 23 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Adelaide Crows
Fri 14 Aug 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 15
FRE to win, 72% chance
FRE 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 26.1 | 22.0 to 30.1 | 15.7 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 24.9 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 97% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.0 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 21.5 | 17.8 to 25.2 | 12.0 to 31.0 | 88% | 63% | 27% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.9 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 19.4 | 15.9 to 23.0 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 19.0 | 15.5 to 22.5 | 10.0 to 28.0 | 77% | 40% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 16.1 | 12.8 to 19.4 | 7.7 to 24.5 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 13.0 | 9.9 to 16.0 | 5.2 to 20.7 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.1 | 4.7 to 19.7 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.9 | 4.5 to 19.4 | 25% | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.5 to 17.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 9.5 | 6.8 to 12.2 | 2.7 to 16.3 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 7.5 | 5.1 to 9.9 | 1.3 to 13.7 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.5 | 16.8 to 37.9 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 32% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 24.9 | 21.0 to 28.9 | 14.8 to 35.0 | 98% | 86% | 57% | 23% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 39.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 21.0 | 17.4 to 24.7 | 11.6 to 30.5 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 6% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| James Peatling | WL | 20.3 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.6 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 19.1 | 15.6 to 22.7 | 10.1 to 28.2 | 81% | 48% | 14% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 16.9 | 13.5 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFR | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPR | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 15.2 | 12.0 to 18.4 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 14.7 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 49% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 47% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WR | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.4 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.4 | 17% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.7 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 6.9 | 4.5 to 9.2 | 0.8 to 12.9 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |