AFL · ROUND 23 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Adelaide Crows
Fri 14 Aug 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 15
FRE to win, 72% chance
FRE 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Jackson | RK | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 48% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 122 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 95 | 80 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 44% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 134 | 87% | 75% | 60% | 40% | 28% | inside our 90% range: 112 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 97 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Hayden Young | R | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 9% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 60 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 26% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 56 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 76 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 88 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 52 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 42 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 55 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 84 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 28 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 40 | 27 to 54 | 7 to 74 | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 40 | 27 to 53 | 7 to 73 | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 38 | 25 to 51 | 5 to 71 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Dawson | C | 107 | 91 to 123 | 66 to 148 | 93% | 87% | 74% | 61% | 46% | inside our 50% range: 111 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 164 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 26% | 14% | outside our 90% range: 41 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 76 |
| James Peatling | WL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 34 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFR | 69 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPR | 68 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 30% | 16% | 7% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 65 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 41% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 61 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 18% | 10% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 60 | 46 to 75 | 25 to 96 | 28% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 43 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 57 | 42 to 71 | 21 to 92 | 25% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 46 | 32 to 60 | 12 to 80 | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 79 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 41 | 27 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16 |