AFL · ROUND 23 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Adelaide Crows
Fri 14 Aug 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 15
FRE to win, 72% chance
FRE 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jye Amiss | FF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 79% | 55% | 33% | 16% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 2.1 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 31% | 15% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 67% | 46% | 24% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 46% | 21% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 48% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 47% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 31% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 27% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 28% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 16% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 11% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 70% | 39% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 1.7 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 70% | 39% | 17% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 60% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 36% | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 22% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 32% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 21% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 21% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Peatling | WL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Rory Laird | INT | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |