AFL · ROUND 23 · OPTUS STADIUM
Fremantle v Adelaide Crows
Fri 14 Aug 2026, 6:10pm AWST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
FRE by 15
FRE to win, 72% chance
FRE 72%28% ADE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
FRE by 24
HIT Actual margin 24 · 9.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Marks: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Fremantle
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Worner | HBFR | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Luke Ryan | CHB | 6.2 | 4.2 to 8.1 | 1.7 to 10.6 | 78% | 65% | 50% | 35% | 24% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Josh Treacy | FPR | 5.6 | 3.7 to 7.5 | 1.4 to 9.8 | 69% | 57% | 42% | 29% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Brennan Cox | BPL | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.7 to 8.4 | 54% | 36% | 23% | 14% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Heath Chapman | BPR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.3 | 0.8 to 8.5 | 59% | 42% | 25% | 16% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jordan Clark | HBFL | 4.4 | 2.7 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 57% | 42% | 29% | 18% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jye Amiss | FF | 4.3 | 2.7 to 6.0 | 0.6 to 8.0 | 48% | 35% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Oscar McDonald | INT | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.9 | 0.6 to 7.9 | 53% | 37% | 24% | 15% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Patrick Voss | FPL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.6 | 52% | 33% | 21% | 12% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Matthew Johnson | WL | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Neil Erasmus | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 45% | 30% | 18% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Alex Pearce | FB | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.4 | 0.3 to 7.3 | 48% | 33% | 22% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Hayden Young | R | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Nathan O'Driscoll | INT | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.3 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 40% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Andrew Brayshaw | C | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Michael Frederick | WR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 35% | 23% | 15% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Shai Bolton | HFFL | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.8 | 19% | 12% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Serong | RR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mason Cox | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Switkowski | HFFR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Isaiah Dudley | CHF | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Jackson | RK | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.8 | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christopher Scerri | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Adelaide Crows
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | 8+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rory Laird | INT | 5.2 | 3.4 to 7.0 | 1.1 to 9.3 | 61% | 44% | 32% | 21% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Josh Worrell | FB | 4.9 | 3.1 to 6.6 | 0.9 to 8.8 | 66% | 51% | 36% | 24% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Riley Thilthorpe | CHF | 4.5 | 2.8 to 6.1 | 0.7 to 8.2 | 46% | 27% | 17% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Darcy Fogarty | FF | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.8 | 0.5 to 7.9 | 48% | 32% | 22% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Jordan Dawson | C | 4.1 | 2.5 to 5.7 | 0.5 to 7.7 | 39% | 26% | 16% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Isaac Cumming | HBFL | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 48% | 32% | 20% | 11% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Keane | CHB | 4.0 | 2.4 to 5.6 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 47% | 31% | 19% | 10% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Max Michalanney | BPR | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.5 | 0.4 to 7.5 | 44% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Brayden Cook | HBFR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.2 | 0.3 to 7.2 | 50% | 30% | 16% | 11% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Luke Nankervis | HFFL | 3.7 | 2.1 to 5.2 | 0.2 to 7.1 | 45% | 28% | 15% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Callum Ah Chee | WR | 3.6 | 2.1 to 5.1 | 0.2 to 7.0 | 37% | 21% | 13% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Daniel Curtin | FPR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Izak Rankine | RR | 3.5 | 2.0 to 5.0 | 0.2 to 6.9 | 39% | 25% | 16% | 9% | 5% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Hugo Hall-Kahan | FPL | 3.4 | 1.9 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.7 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| James Borlase | BPL | 3.4 | 2.0 to 4.9 | 0.1 to 6.8 | 31% | 21% | 12% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Josh Rachele | HFFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jake Soligo | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 19% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Sam Berry | INT | 2.4 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 18% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| James Peatling | WL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 15% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ben Keays | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.4 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 16% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Lachlan McAndrew | RK | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Toby Murray | INT | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Taylor | INT | 1.8 | 0.7 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |