AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
HAW 70%30% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 27.7 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 0.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 100 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Josh Ward | R | 26.5 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 98 / inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 25.7 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 104 / inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 22.9 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 83 / inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 22.9 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 89 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 22.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 86 / outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Will Day | C | 22.8 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 22.7 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Karl Amon | CHB | 22.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 21.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 6.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 91 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 21.7 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 20.0 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 18.5 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.4 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 78 / inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.8 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.8 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 82 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 14.2 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 58 / inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 14.0 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 13.1 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 12.0 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.5 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 69 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.8 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 2.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 75 / inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 11.6 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 4.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 72 / inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 11.4 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.2 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.1 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 48 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 30.2 / inside our 90% range: 36.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 108 / inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 27.7 / inside our 50% range: 30.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 102 / inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Scott Pendlebury | CHF | 21.7 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 81 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 21.6 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.6 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 87 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 20.6 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.2 / outside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.5 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 20.1 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 18.8 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 101 / inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 18.7 / outside our 90% range: 28.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.9 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Ned Long | INT | 17.6 / inside our 50% range: 17.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 5.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 70 / inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 17.4 / inside our 90% range: 11.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.3 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 73 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 13.6 / inside our 90% range: 17.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.9 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 60 / outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 13.4 / outside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 54 / outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 13.2 / outside our 90% range: 22.0 | 0.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 4.1 / outside our 90% range: 12.0 | 63 / outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 12.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 11.8 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 3.4 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 66 / inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 11.1 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 53 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 10.8 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 10.8 / inside our 90% range: 16.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.0 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 73 / inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 10.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 9.6 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.9 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / outside our 90% range: 9 |
| Noah Howes | BPR | 8.5 / inside our 50% range: 11.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 45 / inside our 50% range: 41 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 8.3 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Charlie West | INT | 7.6 / inside our 50% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 41 / inside our 50% range: 44 |