AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
HAW 70%30% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.1 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 35% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 26.5 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 25% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 25.7 | 21.7 to 29.7 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 61% | 29% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.7 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 22.9 | 19.1 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 72% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.6 | 13.1 to 32.5 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 12% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Will Day | C | 22.8 | 19.0 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.5 | 13.0 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Karl Amon | CHB | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 21.8 | 18.0 to 25.5 | 12.2 to 31.3 | 90% | 64% | 31% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 21.7 | 18.0 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 20.0 | 16.4 to 23.6 | 10.8 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 17.8 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 14.2 | 11.0 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 13.1 | 10.1 to 16.1 | 5.3 to 20.8 | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 12.0 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.5 to 19.5 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 11.4 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.7 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 10.2 | 7.5 to 13.0 | 3.2 to 17.3 | 9% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 30.2 | 25.9 to 34.5 | 19.2 to 41.2 | 98% | 91% | 79% | 52% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 36.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.1 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | CHF | 21.7 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 28% | 7% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.2 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 18.7 | 15.2 to 22.2 | 9.7 to 27.7 | 75% | 37% | 11% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 17.4 | 14.0 to 20.8 | 8.7 to 26.1 | 68% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 13.4 | 10.3 to 16.4 | 5.6 to 21.2 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 12.2 | 9.3 to 15.2 | 4.7 to 19.8 | 25% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.2 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 10.1 | 7.3 to 12.8 | 3.1 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 9.6 | 6.9 to 12.3 | 2.7 to 16.4 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Noah Howes | BPR | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 2.0 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 8.3 | 5.8 to 10.8 | 1.8 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 7.6 | 5.2 to 10.1 | 1.3 to 13.9 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |