AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
HAW 70%30% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 104 | 88 to 121 | 64 to 145 | 91% | 85% | 71% | 58% | 42% | inside our 50% range: 97 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 100 | 84 to 116 | 60 to 140 | 89% | 78% | 64% | 51% | 34% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Josh Ward | R | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 83 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 91 | 75 to 106 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Will Day | C | 91 | 75 to 107 | 52 to 130 | 85% | 73% | 55% | 37% | 21% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 65 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 128 | 84% | 69% | 50% | 33% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 88 | 72 to 104 | 49 to 127 | 84% | 67% | 48% | 31% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Karl Amon | CHB | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 47% | 29% | 15% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 42% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 53 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 61 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 82 | 66 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 72% | 56% | 37% | 23% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 115 | 67% | 48% | 31% | 17% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 85 |
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 112 | 56% | 41% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 72 | 57 to 86 | 35 to 108 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 65 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 70 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 45 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 41 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 49 | 36 to 63 | 15 to 84 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 48 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Daicos | R | 108 | 92 to 124 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 76% | 63% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 115 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 102 | 86 to 119 | 62 to 143 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | inside our 50% range: 102 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 101 | 85 to 117 | 61 to 141 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 54% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 87 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 65% | 47% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 84 | 68 to 99 | 46 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Scott Pendlebury | CHF | 81 | 65 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 79 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 62 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 99 |
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 110 | 56% | 38% | 23% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Ned Long | INT | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 83 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 63 | 48 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 21% | 11% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 101 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 55 | 40 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 31 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 104 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Noah Howes | BPR | 45 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 41 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 44 | 31 to 58 | 11 to 78 | 8% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 9 |
| Charlie West | INT | 41 | 27 to 54 | 8 to 74 | 6% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 44 |