AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Hawthorn v Collingwood
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
HAW by 14
HAW to win, 70% chance
HAW 70%30% COL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 13.8 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Hawthorn
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Gunston | FPR | 2.6 | 1.6 to 3.5 | 0.4 to 4.7 | 83% | 59% | 36% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Nick Watson | FPL | 2.1 | 1.2 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.0 | 74% | 51% | 30% | 14% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mabior Chol | CHF | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 60% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Lewis | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 54% | 27% | 11% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Dylan Moore | HFFL | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 49% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Ginnivan | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 34% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Connor Macdonald | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Will Day | C | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cam Mackenzie | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Morrison | WL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jarman Impey | HBFL | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Ward | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 24% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Max Beattie | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jai Newcombe | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Josh Weddle | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Massimo D'Ambrosio | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Bailey Macdonald | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Blake Hardwick | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lloyd Meek | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| James Sicily | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Battle | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Karl Amon | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Barrass | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Collingwood
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel McStay | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Tim Membrey | FPR | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 60% | 38% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Schultz | FF | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 53% | 26% | 9% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordan De Goey | C | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Anderson | INT | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 42% | 16% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Nick Daicos | R | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 34% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| William Hayes | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 35% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Beau McCreery | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 26% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Scott Pendlebury | CHF | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 42% | 12% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Harrison | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 29% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie West | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Edward Allan | RR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 16% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Roan Steele | WL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 17% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Swadling | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ned Long | INT | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 12% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Crisp | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Houston | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Darcy Cameron | RK | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Daicos | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Puncher | FB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Noah Howes | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Billy Frampton | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Isaac Quaynor | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |