AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 3:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 22
GEE to win, 80% chance
NM 20%80% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 31.3 | 26.9 to 35.6 | 20.1 to 42.4 | 98% | 93% | 81% | 58% | 25% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 27.7 | 23.6 to 31.9 | 17.1 to 38.3 | 95% | 88% | 69% | 34% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 27.1 | 23.0 to 31.2 | 16.6 to 37.6 | 95% | 87% | 64% | 30% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 26.3 | 22.2 to 30.3 | 15.9 to 36.6 | 95% | 84% | 58% | 24% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 25.3 | 21.3 to 29.3 | 15.1 to 35.5 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 23.2 | 19.4 to 27.1 | 13.4 to 33.1 | 93% | 73% | 40% | 13% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 26.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 22.0 | 18.3 to 25.8 | 12.4 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 20.9 | 17.2 to 24.6 | 11.5 to 30.3 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 18.5 | 15.0 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 18.1 | 14.7 to 21.6 | 9.3 to 27.0 | 72% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 17.3 | 13.9 to 20.6 | 8.6 to 25.9 | 67% | 31% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 16.6 | 13.3 to 19.9 | 8.1 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 14.6 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.5 to 22.7 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 14.0 | 10.9 to 17.1 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Griffin Logue | BPR | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Jack Darling | RR | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 11.5 | 8.6 to 14.4 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.7 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 8.6 | 6.0 to 11.2 | 2.0 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 30.6 | 26.3 to 34.9 | 19.5 to 41.6 | 98% | 92% | 80% | 55% | 21% | inside our 50% range: 34.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 22.9 | 19.0 to 26.7 | 13.1 to 32.6 | 92% | 71% | 38% | 12% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 22.6 | 18.8 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.3 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 28.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 21.9 | 18.2 to 25.6 | 12.3 to 31.5 | 90% | 67% | 32% | 8% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 20.8 | 17.2 to 24.5 | 11.5 to 30.2 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 20.4 | 16.8 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.7 | 84% | 56% | 22% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 18.6 | 15.1 to 22.0 | 9.6 to 27.5 | 75% | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 17.7 | 14.3 to 21.2 | 9.0 to 26.5 | 72% | 33% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 17.5 | 14.1 to 20.9 | 8.8 to 26.2 | 69% | 32% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 15.9 | 12.6 to 19.1 | 7.5 to 24.2 | 53% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 45% | 16% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 14.6 | 11.5 to 17.8 | 6.5 to 22.8 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 13.2 | 10.1 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 20.9 | 34% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 11.8 | 8.9 to 14.7 | 4.4 to 19.2 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 11.7 | 8.8 to 14.6 | 4.3 to 19.1 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Brad Close | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 19% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 8.5 | 6.0 to 11.1 | 2.0 to 15.1 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |