AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 3:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 22
GEE to win, 80% chance
NM 20%80% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harry Sheezel | R | 115 | 99 to 132 | 74 to 157 | 97% | 92% | 85% | 73% | 59% | outside our 90% range: 51 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 82% | 68% | 56% | 39% | inside our 90% range: 69 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | inside our 50% range: 113 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 65% | 47% | 31% | outside our 90% range: 55 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 93 | 78 to 109 | 54 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 40% | 26% | inside our 90% range: 77 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 89 | 74 to 105 | 51 to 128 | 84% | 70% | 51% | 33% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 84 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 88 | 72 to 103 | 49 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 48% | 30% | 17% | inside our 90% range: 49 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 74 | 60 to 90 | 37 to 112 | 56% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 74 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jack Darling | RR | 72 | 57 to 87 | 35 to 109 | 52% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 69 | 55 to 84 | 33 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 64 | 49 to 78 | 28 to 100 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Griffin Logue | BPR | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 47 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 25 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 57 | 43 to 71 | 22 to 92 | 26% | 14% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 33 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 53 | 39 to 67 | 18 to 88 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 37 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bailey Smith | C | 110 | 94 to 127 | 70 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 78% | 65% | 52% | inside our 50% range: 116 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 105 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 86 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 80% | 65% | 43% | 28% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 103 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 50% range: 98 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 82 | 67 to 97 | 44 to 120 | 76% | 56% | 36% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| James Worpel | INT | 80 | 65 to 96 | 42 to 118 | 71% | 53% | 36% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 80 | 64 to 95 | 42 to 117 | 70% | 52% | 34% | 20% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 77 | 62 to 92 | 40 to 115 | 62% | 44% | 29% | 16% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 74 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 75 | 60 to 90 | 38 to 113 | 57% | 42% | 27% | 13% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 59 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 72 | 57 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 52% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 98 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 51% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 81 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 49% | 30% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 57 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 67 | 53 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 46% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 67 | 52 to 82 | 31 to 104 | 45% | 29% | 16% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 66 | 51 to 80 | 29 to 102 | 42% | 26% | 13% | 5% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 65 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 101 | 36% | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 63 | 48 to 77 | 27 to 99 | 34% | 20% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 49 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 61 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 97 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 26 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6 |
| Brad Close | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 22% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 48 | 34 to 62 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 51 |