AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 3:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 22
GEE to win, 80% chance
NM 20%80% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.8 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 63% | 40% | 21% | 10% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 67% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Darling | RR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 63% | 33% | 13% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 48% | 23% | 7% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 34% | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 25% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 34% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 11% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 15% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Griffin Logue | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.1 | 1.3 to 2.9 | 0.1 to 4.1 | 76% | 53% | 30% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 1.9 | 1.1 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 69% | 46% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 65% | 36% | 15% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 65% | 34% | 14% | 5% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 41% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.6 | 44% | 19% | 6% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 30% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Brad Close | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.9 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 26% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| James Worpel | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 17% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |