AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
North Melbourne v Geelong Cats
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 3:45pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
GEE by 22
GEE to win, 80% chance
NM 20%80% GEE
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
GEE by 15
HIT Actual margin 15 · 7.1 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
North Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Xerri | RK | 5.1 | 3.4 to 6.9 | 1.3 to 9.0 | 76% | 61% | 45% | 30% | 21% | outside our 90% range: 11.0 |
| Harry Sheezel | R | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 75% | 60% | 43% | 29% | 20% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Davies-Uniacke | C | 5.0 | 3.3 to 6.7 | 1.2 to 8.8 | 75% | 59% | 43% | 29% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| George Wardlaw | INT | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 72% | 56% | 40% | 27% | 19% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Paul Curtis | FPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 46% | 28% | 15% | 8% | 3% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Finn O'Sullivan | WL | 2.9 | 1.6 to 4.2 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 9% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Jy Simpkin | HFFR | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 26% | 15% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Wil Dawson | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 39% | 18% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Charlie Spargo | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jack Darling | RR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Blamires | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Dylan Stephens | WR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Luke Parker | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 23% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Colby McKercher | HBFR | 1.9 | 0.8 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Zac Banch | INT | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 17% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Cooper Trembath | CHF | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Caleb Daniel | CHB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 18% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Cameron Zurhaar | FPL | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Charlie Comben | FB | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 20% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Riley Hardeman | HBFL | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 12% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Griffin Logue | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aidan Corr | BPL | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 11% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Larkey | FF | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
Geelong Cats
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Worpel | INT | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 79% | 66% | 54% | 40% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 7.0 |
| Tom Atkins | RR | 5.3 | 3.6 to 7.1 | 1.4 to 9.2 | 80% | 67% | 54% | 41% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 6.0 |
| Bailey Smith | C | 4.1 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 65% | 48% | 33% | 21% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Oisin Mullin | R | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 65% | 49% | 27% | 15% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Shaun Mannagh | FPL | 3.1 | 1.8 to 4.5 | 0.1 to 6.1 | 55% | 35% | 19% | 10% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark Blicavs | WR | 2.8 | 1.5 to 4.1 | 0.0 to 5.7 | 45% | 28% | 16% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Tanner Bruhn | HBFR | 2.6 | 1.3 to 3.8 | 0.0 to 5.3 | 30% | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jhye Clark | INT | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 35% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mitchell Edwards | RK | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 30% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Brad Close | INT | 2.2 | 1.0 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 20% | 11% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Dempsey | WL | 2.2 | 1.1 to 3.3 | 0.0 to 4.7 | 21% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Gryan Miers | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 15% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Oliver Wiltshire | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 24% | 13% | 7% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Shannon Neale | FF | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Lawson Humphries | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Patrick Dangerfield | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 22% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Oliver Henry | CHF | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Jay Polkinghorne | FPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Mark O'Connor | BPR | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 24% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Zach Guthrie | HBFL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Tom Stewart | BPL | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 18% | 8% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Henry | CHB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 9% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Connor O'Sullivan | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |