AFL · ROUND 23 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 26
MEL to win, 83% chance
PA 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 76
HIT Actual margin 76 · 50.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Wines | RR | 24.4 | 20.5 to 28.3 | 14.4 to 34.4 | 97% | 84% | 54% | 20% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 31.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 24.3 | 20.4 to 28.2 | 14.3 to 34.3 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 24.0 | 20.1 to 27.9 | 14.0 to 34.0 | 97% | 82% | 51% | 19% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 22.2 | 18.4 to 26.0 | 12.6 to 31.8 | 92% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.9 to 29.4 | 85% | 54% | 18% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 19.9 | 16.4 to 23.5 | 10.7 to 29.2 | 84% | 53% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.4 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.5 | 65% | 28% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 12.0 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.7 to 24.6 | 60% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 14.4 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 12.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 12.1 | 9.2 to 15.1 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 27% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.4 | 4.2 to 18.9 | 22% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 11.1 | 8.3 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 11.1 | 8.3 to 14.0 | 3.9 to 18.4 | 18% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 8.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 9.8 | 7.1 to 12.5 | 2.9 to 16.7 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 9.3 | 6.6 to 11.9 | 2.5 to 16.0 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 9.0 | 6.4 to 11.6 | 2.3 to 15.6 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 8.8 | 6.2 to 11.3 | 2.1 to 15.4 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 8.5 | 5.9 to 11.0 | 2.0 to 15.0 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 27.9 | 23.8 to 32.1 | 17.3 to 38.5 | 96% | 89% | 69% | 37% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 26.6 | 22.6 to 30.7 | 16.2 to 37.0 | 95% | 86% | 62% | 26% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 25.2 | 21.3 to 29.2 | 15.0 to 35.4 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 24% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 27.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 24.6 | 20.7 to 28.5 | 14.5 to 34.7 | 97% | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 24.2 | 20.3 to 28.1 | 14.2 to 34.2 | 97% | 83% | 53% | 20% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 22.1 | 18.4 to 25.9 | 12.5 to 31.7 | 91% | 68% | 33% | 9% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 53% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 20.1 | 16.5 to 23.7 | 10.8 to 29.3 | 85% | 54% | 17% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.2 | 10.5 to 28.8 | 83% | 51% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 19.4 | 15.8 to 22.9 | 10.3 to 28.5 | 82% | 49% | 15% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 19.1 | 15.5 to 22.6 | 10.0 to 28.1 | 77% | 41% | 12% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 16.8 | 13.4 to 20.1 | 8.2 to 25.3 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 16.2 | 12.9 to 19.5 | 7.8 to 24.7 | 61% | 24% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 16.0 | 12.7 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.4 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.4 | 6.3 to 22.3 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 14.1 | 11.0 to 17.2 | 6.1 to 22.1 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.8 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 12.5 | 9.5 to 15.5 | 4.9 to 20.1 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 10.7 | 7.9 to 13.5 | 3.6 to 17.9 | 15% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 9.1 | 6.5 to 11.8 | 2.4 to 15.9 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |