AFL · ROUND 23 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 26
MEL to win, 83% chance
PA 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 76
HIT Actual margin 76 · 50.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 33% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 95 | 79 to 111 | 56 to 135 | 88% | 76% | 61% | 43% | 29% | inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Willem Drew | R | 89 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 84 | 68 to 99 | 45 to 122 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 18% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 112 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 74 | 59 to 89 | 37 to 111 | 55% | 40% | 25% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 64 | 50 to 79 | 28 to 100 | 36% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 61 | 47 to 76 | 25 to 97 | 30% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 60 | 46 to 74 | 24 to 96 | 27% | 14% | 8% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 59 | 45 to 74 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 58 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 52 | 38 to 65 | 17 to 86 | 18% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 50 | 36 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 49 | 35 to 63 | 15 to 83 | 17% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 48 | 34 to 61 | 14 to 82 | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 47 | 33 to 60 | 13 to 80 | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 38 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 44 | 30 to 57 | 10 to 77 | 7% | 4% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 24 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Gawn | RK | 108 | 92 to 125 | 68 to 149 | 94% | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 99 | 83 to 115 | 59 to 139 | 88% | 77% | 63% | 49% | 32% | inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 96 | 80 to 112 | 57 to 136 | 88% | 77% | 62% | 45% | 30% | inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 80% | 66% | 44% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 69% | 50% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 39 to 114 | 59% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 76 | 61 to 91 | 38 to 113 | 58% | 43% | 28% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 71 | 56 to 86 | 34 to 108 | 51% | 36% | 21% | 12% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 105 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 68 | 53 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 4% | outside our 90% range: 119 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 68 | 53 to 83 | 31 to 105 | 45% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 67 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 7% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 103 | 44% | 28% | 15% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 66 | 52 to 81 | 30 to 102 | 43% | 27% | 14% | 6% | 3% | inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 20% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 59 | 44 to 73 | 23 to 94 | 25% | 13% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 55 | 41 to 69 | 20 to 90 | 22% | 10% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 50 | 37 to 64 | 16 to 85 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 53 |