AFL · ROUND 23 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 26
MEL to win, 83% chance
PA 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 76
HIT Actual margin 76 · 50.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 2.3 | 1.4 to 3.2 | 0.3 to 4.4 | 81% | 57% | 34% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.4 | 0.7 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.0 | 43% | 19% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 59% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 49% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.7 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 54% | 22% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.2 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 44% | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.8 | 37% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 31% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 24% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 30% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 27% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.3 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 25% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Willem Drew | R | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 12% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 5% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 2.2 | 1.3 to 3.0 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 78% | 54% | 33% | 15% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 66% | 35% | 14% | 4% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 1.6 | 0.9 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.3 | 63% | 34% | 13% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 1.5 | 0.8 to 2.2 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 58% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 67% | 37% | 15% | 5% | 2% | outside our 90% range: 3.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 1.1 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.5 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 1% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 1.0 | 0.4 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.3 | 43% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 31% | 10% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 0.9 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 50% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 46% | 17% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 37% | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 28% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 13% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 23% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 0.4 | 0.1 to 0.8 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 19% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 18% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 0.9 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |