AFL · ROUND 23 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 26
MEL to win, 83% chance
PA 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 76
HIT Actual margin 76 · 50.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Summary: our prediction for every market, one row per player. Where the match is played, the actual follows the slash. Choose a market for its ranges and chances.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Wines | RR | 24.4 / inside our 90% range: 31.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 85 / inside our 90% range: 115 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 24.3 / inside our 50% range: 23.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 3.3 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 95 / inside our 50% range: 86 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 24.0 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 99 / inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Willem Drew | R | 22.2 / inside our 50% range: 20.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 89 / inside our 90% range: 68 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 20.1 / inside our 90% range: 29.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 88 / inside our 50% range: 103 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 19.9 / inside our 90% range: 27.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.2 / inside our 50% range: 7.0 | 3.0 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 84 / inside our 50% range: 96 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 17.1 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 7.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.2 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 76 / outside our 90% range: 38 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 16.9 / inside our 90% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 74 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 16.2 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 64 / inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 14.4 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 61 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 13.7 / inside our 50% range: 12.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.5 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.8 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 60 / inside our 90% range: 44 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 18.0 | 0.4 / outside our 90% range: 2.0 | 1.8 / outside our 90% range: 7.0 | 2.5 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 78 / inside our 90% range: 116 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 12.1 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 6.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 74 / inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 11.6 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.0 / outside our 90% range: 6.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 46 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 11.3 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.4 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 51 |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 49 / inside our 50% range: 45 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 11.1 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.2 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 11.0 / inside our 90% range: 8.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 48 / inside our 50% range: 43 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 9.8 / inside our 90% range: 13.0 | 1.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 3.9 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 58 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 9.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 0.6 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 1.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 24 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 9.0 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 44 / inside our 90% range: 29 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 8.8 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 1.3 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 52 / inside our 90% range: 19 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 8.5 / inside our 50% range: 9.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 5.0 | 1.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 47 / inside our 50% range: 38 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | DISPOSALS | GOALS | MARKS | TACKLES | FANTASY |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 27.9 / inside our 90% range: 19.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 99 / inside our 90% range: 75 |
| Tom Sparrow | C | 26.6 / outside our 90% range: 16.0 | 0.6 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 6.0 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 104 / inside our 90% range: 70 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 25.2 / inside our 50% range: 27.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 5.1 / inside our 90% range: 7.0 | 90 / inside our 90% range: 107 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 24.6 / inside our 50% range: 24.0 | 1.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.8 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 4.2 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 96 / inside our 50% range: 88 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 24.2 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.3 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.7 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 86 / inside our 90% range: 63 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 22.1 / inside our 50% range: 25.0 | 0.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.1 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 108 / inside our 50% range: 108 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 20.2 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 1.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 20.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.2 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.0 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 19.7 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 4.3 / outside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 79 / inside our 90% range: 47 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 19.4 / inside our 50% range: 21.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.9 / outside our 90% range: 8.0 | 1.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 76 / inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 19.1 / inside our 90% range: 15.0 | 0.8 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 2.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 76 / inside our 90% range: 58 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 16.8 / inside our 50% range: 14.0 | 0.5 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 1.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 68 / inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 16.2 / inside our 50% range: 19.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.6 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.4 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 71 / inside our 50% range: 78 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 16.0 / inside our 50% range: 16.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 4.6 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 59 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 15.6 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.3 / inside our 50% range: 4.0 | 1.2 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 71 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 15.1 / inside our 50% range: 18.0 | 1.0 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.3 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.7 / outside our 90% range: 9.0 | 68 / outside our 90% range: 119 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 14.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 2.7 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 67 / inside our 90% range: 52 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 14.1 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 2.2 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.4 / inside our 50% range: 5.0 | 1.5 / outside our 90% range: 5.0 | 69 / inside our 90% range: 86 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 13.8 / inside our 90% range: 9.0 | 0.1 / inside our 50% range: 0.0 | 5.0 / inside our 90% range: 3.0 | 1.3 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 59 / inside our 90% range: 39 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 12.5 / inside our 90% range: 20.0 | 0.9 / inside our 90% range: 2.0 | 2.4 / inside our 90% range: 4.0 | 2.1 / inside our 50% range: 1.0 | 55 / inside our 90% range: 82 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 12.3 / inside our 50% range: 15.0 | 1.6 / outside our 90% range: 4.0 | 3.8 / inside our 50% range: 3.0 | 2.1 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 66 / inside our 50% range: 73 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 10.7 / inside our 50% range: 13.0 | 1.6 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 4.3 / inside our 90% range: 6.0 | 2.7 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 62 / inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 9.1 / inside our 50% range: 10.0 | 1.3 / outside our 90% range: 3.0 | 2.9 / inside our 50% range: 2.0 | 1.4 / inside our 90% range: 0.0 | 50 / inside our 50% range: 53 |