AFL · ROUND 23 · ADELAIDE OVAL
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 7:40pm ACST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
MEL by 26
MEL to win, 83% chance
PA 17%83% MEL
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
MEL by 76
HIT Actual margin 76 · 50.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Tackles: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Port Adelaide
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Drew | R | 4.8 | 3.1 to 6.5 | 1.1 to 8.5 | 73% | 56% | 40% | 28% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 4.0 |
| Joe Richards | HFFR | 4.6 | 2.9 to 6.2 | 1.0 to 8.2 | 69% | 50% | 37% | 24% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Jase Burgoyne | WR | 4.2 | 2.7 to 5.8 | 0.7 to 7.7 | 67% | 53% | 34% | 23% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Ollie Wines | RR | 3.8 | 2.3 to 5.3 | 0.5 to 7.1 | 61% | 45% | 26% | 14% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Jason Horne-Francis | C | 3.3 | 1.9 to 4.7 | 0.3 to 6.4 | 55% | 35% | 20% | 13% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Miles Bergman | BPR | 3.0 | 1.7 to 4.4 | 0.1 to 6.0 | 46% | 27% | 15% | 8% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jordon Sweet | RK | 2.5 | 1.3 to 3.7 | 0.0 to 5.2 | 37% | 22% | 10% | 6% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Alex Van Wyk | INT | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Jacob Wehr | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 17% | 9% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Joe Berry | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 22% | 12% | 5% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Xavier Bamert | HFFL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 26% | 15% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Balyn O'Brien | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 17% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Lachie Jones | HBFR | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 27% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Tom Anastasopoulos | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 20% | 12% | 4% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Corey Durdin | FPL | 1.9 | 0.8 to 2.9 | 0.0 to 4.2 | 22% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Zadow | INT | 1.9 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Josh Lai | BPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.1 | 21% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Dante Visentini | INT | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 13% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Todd Marshall | CHF | 1.7 | 0.7 to 2.7 | 0.0 to 3.9 | 19% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Jack Whitlock | FPR | 1.5 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 16% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harrison Ramm | FB | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Georgiades | FF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Aliir Aliir | CHB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
Melbourne
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | 6+ | 7+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Sparrow | C | 6.0 | 4.1 to 7.8 | 1.8 to 10.1 | 86% | 75% | 62% | 51% | 37% | inside our 50% range: 5.0 |
| Jack Steele | RR | 5.1 | 3.3 to 6.8 | 1.3 to 8.9 | 75% | 60% | 44% | 30% | 20% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Kysaiah Pickett | HFFL | 4.2 | 2.6 to 5.7 | 0.7 to 7.6 | 65% | 49% | 33% | 21% | 11% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Joel Fitzgerald | INT | 3.9 | 2.4 to 5.4 | 0.5 to 7.2 | 65% | 48% | 27% | 15% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Kade Chandler | FPR | 3.7 | 2.2 to 5.1 | 0.4 to 6.9 | 56% | 37% | 21% | 12% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Harrison Petty | INT | 2.7 | 1.4 to 3.9 | 0.0 to 5.5 | 41% | 25% | 14% | 7% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Caleb Windsor | R | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.1 | 29% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Harvey Langford | WR | 2.4 | 1.2 to 3.6 | 0.0 to 5.0 | 26% | 13% | 6% | 3% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Bowey | BPL | 2.3 | 1.1 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 25% | 12% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Max Gawn | RK | 2.3 | 1.2 to 3.5 | 0.0 to 4.9 | 33% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Bailey Laurie | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Bayley Fritsch | INT | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.6 | 19% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Ed Langdon | HFFR | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 29% | 16% | 8% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Harry Sharp | WL | 2.1 | 1.0 to 3.2 | 0.0 to 4.5 | 16% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Christian Salem | HBFL | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.1 | 0.0 to 4.4 | 28% | 13% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 3.0 |
| Trent Rivers | INT | 2.0 | 0.9 to 3.0 | 0.0 to 4.3 | 24% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Koltyn Tholstrup | FPL | 1.8 | 0.8 to 2.8 | 0.0 to 4.0 | 18% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Changkuoth Jiath | HBFR | 1.6 | 0.7 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.8 | 13% | 4% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jacob van Rooyen | FF | 1.5 | 0.6 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.6 | 13% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Daniel Turner | BPR | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.3 | 0.0 to 3.4 | 14% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Matthew Jefferson | CHF | 1.4 | 0.5 to 2.4 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 15% | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom McDonald | CHB | 1.3 | 0.4 to 2.1 | 0.0 to 3.2 | 10% | 3% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Jake Lever | FB | 1.2 | 0.4 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 3.1 | 7% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |