AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Richmond v St Kilda
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 26
STK to win, 84% chance
RIC 16%84% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 22.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Ross | RR | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.8 to 37.8 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 31% | 10% | outside our 90% range: 16.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 27.3 | 23.2 to 31.4 | 16.7 to 37.8 | 95% | 87% | 65% | 31% | 10% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 22.7 | 18.9 to 26.4 | 12.9 to 32.4 | 92% | 71% | 37% | 11% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 18.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 21.3 | 17.6 to 25.0 | 11.8 to 30.8 | 88% | 62% | 26% | 6% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 23.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 13.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 19.7 | 16.1 to 23.3 | 10.6 to 28.9 | 83% | 52% | 16% | 3% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 18.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 17.6 | 14.2 to 21.0 | 8.8 to 26.3 | 70% | 33% | 9% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.4 to 25.7 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 16.0 | 12.8 to 19.3 | 7.6 to 24.5 | 59% | 23% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 15.8 | 12.5 to 19.1 | 7.4 to 24.2 | 52% | 20% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 15.4 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 48% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.6 | 7.1 to 23.6 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FPL | 14.9 | 11.7 to 18.1 | 6.8 to 23.1 | 51% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Taj Hotton | R | 14.5 | 11.4 to 17.7 | 6.4 to 22.6 | 47% | 15% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 13.8 | 10.7 to 16.9 | 5.9 to 21.7 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Judson Clarke | WR | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 37% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 13.7 | 10.7 to 16.8 | 5.8 to 21.6 | 38% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 11.9 | 9.0 to 14.8 | 4.4 to 19.3 | 23% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 11.1 | 8.2 to 13.9 | 3.8 to 18.3 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 9.4 | 6.8 to 12.1 | 2.6 to 16.2 | 7% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | INT | 8.6 | 6.1 to 11.2 | 2.0 to 15.2 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 3.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bradley Hill | HFFR | 27.7 | 23.5 to 31.8 | 17.1 to 38.2 | 95% | 88% | 68% | 34% | 11% | outside our 90% range: 41.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 26.1 | 22.1 to 30.1 | 15.8 to 36.4 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 23% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Max Hall | R | 25.8 | 21.8 to 29.8 | 15.5 to 36.0 | 98% | 88% | 62% | 29% | 6% | outside our 90% range: 40.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 24.8 | 20.9 to 28.8 | 14.7 to 34.9 | 97% | 85% | 56% | 22% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 22.3 | 18.6 to 26.1 | 12.7 to 32.0 | 92% | 69% | 34% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 21.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.3 | 12.1 to 31.1 | 89% | 64% | 29% | 7% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 14.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 20.4 | 16.7 to 24.0 | 11.1 to 29.6 | 84% | 55% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 20.3 | 16.7 to 23.9 | 11.0 to 29.6 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HFFL | 18.8 | 15.3 to 22.3 | 9.8 to 27.8 | 76% | 38% | 11% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 16.9 | 13.6 to 20.3 | 8.3 to 25.6 | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 15.7 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 24.0 | 51% | 19% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 20.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 15.3 | 12.1 to 18.5 | 7.0 to 23.5 | 47% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 15.0 | 11.8 to 18.2 | 6.8 to 23.2 | 52% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Mitch Owens | C | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Angus Hastie | HBFL | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 39% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | BPR | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 32% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 12.7 | 9.7 to 15.7 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 29% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 11.4 | 8.6 to 14.3 | 4.1 to 18.8 | 22% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Dan Butler | FPR | 11.0 | 8.2 to 13.8 | 3.8 to 18.2 | 20% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 21.0 |
| Jack Higgins | CHF | 10.8 | 8.0 to 13.6 | 3.6 to 18.0 | 17% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 15.0 |