AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Richmond v St Kilda
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 26
STK to win, 84% chance
RIC 16%84% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 22.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Fantasy: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Taranto | C | 110 | 94 to 126 | 69 to 151 | 95% | 88% | 78% | 64% | 51% | inside our 50% range: 101 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 102 | 86 to 118 | 62 to 142 | 91% | 81% | 67% | 56% | 39% | outside our 90% range: 52 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 93 | 77 to 109 | 54 to 132 | 86% | 74% | 58% | 39% | 26% | inside our 50% range: 80 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 88 | 73 to 104 | 50 to 127 | 84% | 68% | 50% | 32% | 18% | inside our 50% range: 82 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 87 | 72 to 103 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 79 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 86 | 71 to 102 | 48 to 125 | 82% | 64% | 46% | 29% | 15% | inside our 90% range: 55 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 85 | 70 to 101 | 47 to 124 | 79% | 64% | 41% | 27% | 14% | inside our 90% range: 67 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 84 | 69 to 100 | 46 to 123 | 78% | 61% | 40% | 24% | 13% | inside our 90% range: 100 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 83 | 68 to 98 | 45 to 121 | 77% | 59% | 38% | 22% | 12% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 79 | 63 to 94 | 41 to 116 | 68% | 49% | 33% | 19% | 9% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 74 | 59 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 51 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 72 | 58 to 87 | 35 to 110 | 54% | 37% | 21% | 13% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Sam Lalor | FPL | 70 | 55 to 85 | 33 to 107 | 50% | 31% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 48% | 29% | 18% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 66 |
| Taj Hotton | R | 69 | 54 to 84 | 32 to 106 | 47% | 29% | 18% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 40 |
| Tom Lynch | FF | 68 | 54 to 83 | 32 to 105 | 46% | 28% | 17% | 8% | 4% | inside our 90% range: 48 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 63 | 49 to 78 | 27 to 99 | 35% | 22% | 11% | 4% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Judson Clarke | WR | 62 | 48 to 77 | 26 to 98 | 33% | 21% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 58 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 62 | 47 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 31% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 69 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 59 | 45 to 73 | 24 to 95 | 25% | 14% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 37 |
| Steely Green | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 93 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 34 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 25% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 56 |
| Harry Armstrong | INT | 47 | 34 to 61 | 13 to 81 | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 6 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 70+ | 80+ | 90+ | 100+ | 110+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Hall | R | 104 | 88 to 120 | 64 to 144 | 91% | 83% | 70% | 58% | 40% | outside our 90% range: 161 |
| Bradley Hill | HFFR | 103 | 87 to 119 | 63 to 143 | 91% | 83% | 68% | 56% | 39% | outside our 90% range: 145 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 98 | 82 to 114 | 58 to 138 | 90% | 80% | 66% | 48% | 32% | outside our 90% range: 47 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 97 | 81 to 113 | 58 to 137 | 89% | 79% | 64% | 46% | 31% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 94 | 78 to 110 | 55 to 133 | 86% | 74% | 59% | 40% | 27% | inside our 90% range: 130 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 90 | 75 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 53% | 36% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 91 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 90 | 74 to 106 | 51 to 129 | 85% | 71% | 52% | 35% | 20% | inside our 50% range: 94 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 87 | 72 to 103 | 48 to 126 | 83% | 66% | 47% | 30% | 16% | inside our 50% range: 90 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HFFL | 81 | 66 to 96 | 43 to 119 | 71% | 54% | 36% | 22% | 11% | inside our 50% range: 75 |
| Mitch Owens | C | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 92 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 80 | 65 to 95 | 42 to 118 | 70% | 52% | 35% | 21% | 10% | inside our 50% range: 77 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 79 | 64 to 94 | 41 to 117 | 70% | 51% | 34% | 20% | 9% | inside our 90% range: 46 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 78 | 63 to 93 | 40 to 116 | 67% | 48% | 32% | 18% | 8% | outside our 90% range: 122 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 74 | 59 to 89 | 36 to 111 | 57% | 39% | 24% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 104 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 73 | 58 to 88 | 36 to 111 | 56% | 39% | 23% | 14% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 91 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 70 | 56 to 85 | 34 to 107 | 50% | 32% | 19% | 9% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 63 |
| Jack Higgins | CHF | 65 | 50 to 80 | 29 to 101 | 38% | 24% | 13% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 68 |
| Angus Hastie | HBFL | 62 | 48 to 76 | 26 to 98 | 32% | 20% | 11% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 64 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 58 | 44 to 72 | 23 to 94 | 28% | 16% | 7% | 3% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 52 |
| Liam O'Connell | BPR | 57 | 43 to 72 | 22 to 93 | 27% | 15% | 6% | 3% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 79 |
| Dan Butler | FPR | 56 | 42 to 70 | 21 to 91 | 24% | 11% | 5% | 3% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 115 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 54 | 40 to 68 | 19 to 89 | 23% | 10% | 4% | 2% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 67 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 52 | 38 to 66 | 18 to 87 | 20% | 9% | 3% | 1% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 40 |