AFL · ROUND 23 · MCG
Richmond v St Kilda
Sat 15 Aug 2026, 12:35pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
STK by 26
STK to win, 84% chance
RIC 16%84% STK
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
STK by 49
HIT Actual margin 49 · 22.7 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Goals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Richmond
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Lynch | FF | 1.8 | 1.1 to 2.6 | 0.0 to 3.7 | 66% | 42% | 23% | 11% | 5% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Mykelti Lefau | FPR | 1.3 | 0.6 to 1.9 | 0.0 to 2.8 | 57% | 30% | 10% | 4% | 1% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Sam Lalor | FPL | 1.0 | 0.5 to 1.6 | 0.0 to 2.4 | 50% | 19% | 5% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Ralphsmith | HFFR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Seth Campbell | HFFL | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 39% | 15% | 4% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tim Taranto | C | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.3 | 0.0 to 2.0 | 32% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Harry Armstrong | INT | 0.7 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 30% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Judson Clarke | WR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 24% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Steely Green | INT | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 33% | 8% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dion Prestia | CHF | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 14% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Ross | RR | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Taj Hotton | R | 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.2 | 22% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jayden Short | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Patrick Retschko | WL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Grlj | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 21% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Toby Nankervis | RK | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 24% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Kye Annand | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Luke Trainor | INT | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tom Brown | HBFR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 6% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nathan Broad | BPL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Nick Vlastuin | HBFL | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Sam Banks | CHB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Ben Miller | FB | 0.0 | 0.0 to 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
St Kilda
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 1+ | 2+ | 3+ | 4+ | 5+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Higgins | CHF | 2.2 | 1.4 to 3.1 | 0.2 to 4.2 | 79% | 55% | 33% | 16% | 7% | inside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Cooper Sharman | FPL | 1.7 | 1.0 to 2.5 | 0.0 to 3.5 | 61% | 38% | 19% | 8% | 4% | inside our 50% range: 2.0 |
| Max Hall | R | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 68% | 38% | 16% | 5% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Rowan Marshall | FF | 1.3 | 0.7 to 2.0 | 0.0 to 2.9 | 65% | 35% | 14% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Mitch Owens | C | 1.2 | 0.6 to 1.8 | 0.0 to 2.7 | 50% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 5.0 |
| Darcy Wilson | WL | 0.9 | 0.4 to 1.5 | 0.0 to 2.2 | 32% | 11% | 2% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Dan Butler | FPR | 0.8 | 0.3 to 1.4 | 0.0 to 2.1 | 47% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 2.0 |
| Bradley Hill | HFFR | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 27% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Campbell Lake | INT | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugo Garcia | RR | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 28% | 7% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 1.0 |
| Ryan Byrnes | HFFL | 0.6 | 0.2 to 1.1 | 0.0 to 1.7 | 24% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Tom De Koning | RK | 0.6 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.6 | 35% | 9% | 2% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Alix Tauru | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 18% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Hugh Boxshall | WR | 0.5 | 0.1 to 0.9 | 0.0 to 1.4 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Mattaes Phillipou | INT | 0.5 | 0.1 to 1.0 | 0.0 to 1.5 | 20% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Macrae | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Jack Silvagni | BPL | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.0 | 16% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Tobie Travaglia | INT | 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 0.0 to 1.1 | 12% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Angus Hastie | HBFL | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam O'Connell | BPR | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.7 | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Marcus Windhager | CHB | 0.2 | 0.0 to 0.4 | 0.0 to 0.8 | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
| Callum Wilkie | FB | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.5 | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |
| Liam Stocker | HBFR | 0.1 | 0.0 to 0.3 | 0.0 to 0.6 | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 0.0 |