AFL · ROUND 23 · MARVEL STADIUM
Western Bulldogs v Carlton
Sun 16 Aug 2026, 3:15pm AEST (venue time)
FINAL
HIT
OUR TIP
CAR by 19
CAR to win, 77% chance
WB 23%77% CAR
BY HOW MUCH
No margin range published for this match.
RESULT
Draw
HIT Actual margin 0 · 19.2 points off our margin
MATCH MODEL
Tip and margin
18 Jun 2026
Disposals: the first figure is our prediction. The 50% range holds the result half the time and the 90% range nine times in ten. Each percentage is the chance of reaching that number or more.
Inside our 50% rangeInside our 90% rangeOutside our 90% range
Western Bulldogs
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Richards | R | 26.9 | 22.8 to 31.0 | 16.5 to 37.4 | 95% | 86% | 63% | 29% | 8% | inside our 50% range: 31.0 |
| Ryley Sanders | RR | 23.9 | 20.0 to 27.7 | 13.9 to 33.8 | 97% | 81% | 50% | 17% | 3% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Bailey Williams | HBFR | 22.5 | 18.7 to 26.3 | 12.8 to 32.2 | 92% | 70% | 36% | 10% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 22.0 |
| Tom Liberatore | INT | 21.6 | 17.9 to 25.4 | 12.1 to 31.2 | 89% | 65% | 29% | 8% | 1% | outside our 90% range: 33.0 |
| Lachlan Bramble | HBFL | 20.7 | 17.1 to 24.4 | 11.4 to 30.1 | 86% | 59% | 24% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Joel Freijah | C | 20.6 | 16.9 to 24.2 | 11.3 to 29.9 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 20.0 |
| Matthew Kennedy | INT | 18.4 | 15.0 to 21.9 | 9.5 to 27.4 | 74% | 35% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Cooper Hynes | WR | 16.5 | 13.2 to 19.8 | 8.0 to 25.0 | 63% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 22.0 |
| Sam Davidson | WL | 14.7 | 11.6 to 17.9 | 6.6 to 22.9 | 48% | 16% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 19.0 |
| Michael Sellwood | BPL | 14.3 | 11.2 to 17.5 | 6.3 to 22.4 | 46% | 14% | 3% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Rhylee West | INT | 14.2 | 11.1 to 17.3 | 6.2 to 22.2 | 42% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 10.0 |
| Lachie Jaques | INT | 13.6 | 10.6 to 16.7 | 5.8 to 21.5 | 36% | 8% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Cody Weightman | HFFL | 13.2 | 10.2 to 16.2 | 5.4 to 21.0 | 35% | 9% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Buku Khamis | FB | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Josh Dolan | FPL | 12.6 | 9.7 to 15.6 | 5.0 to 20.3 | 28% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Lachlan Carmichael | BPR | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 6.0 |
| Rory Lobb | RK | 12.3 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 19.9 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 10.0 |
| James O'Donnell | CHB | 12.1 | 9.1 to 15.0 | 4.6 to 19.6 | 26% | 5% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |
| Aaron Naughton | FF | 11.3 | 8.4 to 14.1 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Arthur Jones | HFFR | 11.3 | 8.5 to 14.2 | 4.0 to 18.6 | 21% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 13.0 |
| Luke Kennedy | INT | 10.0 | 7.3 to 12.7 | 3.0 to 17.0 | 10% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 8.0 |
| Jordan Croft | FPR | 9.4 | 6.7 to 12.0 | 2.6 to 16.1 | 6% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 4.0 |
| Louis Emmett | CHF | 8.4 | 5.8 to 10.9 | 1.9 to 14.8 | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 1.0 |
Carlton
NO LINEUP| PLAYER | POS | PREDICTED | 50% RANGE | 90% RANGE | 15+ | 20+ | 25+ | 30+ | 35+ | ACTUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Walsh | R | 29.4 | 25.2 to 33.7 | 18.6 to 40.3 | 97% | 91% | 76% | 46% | 19% | inside our 50% range: 33.0 |
| Jagga Smith | INT | 26.5 | 22.5 to 30.6 | 16.1 to 36.9 | 95% | 85% | 61% | 25% | 7% | inside our 50% range: 25.0 |
| George Hewett | RR | 26.0 | 22.0 to 30.0 | 15.7 to 36.3 | 94% | 82% | 57% | 22% | 6% | inside our 50% range: 30.0 |
| Patrick Cripps | C | 25.4 | 21.4 to 29.4 | 15.2 to 35.6 | 98% | 87% | 59% | 25% | 6% | inside our 90% range: 34.0 |
| Oliver Florent | HBFR | 24.7 | 20.8 to 28.6 | 14.6 to 34.8 | 97% | 85% | 55% | 22% | 5% | inside our 50% range: 28.0 |
| Adam Cerra | WR | 23.0 | 19.2 to 26.8 | 13.2 to 32.8 | 93% | 72% | 39% | 13% | 2% | inside our 50% range: 24.0 |
| Billy Wilson | BPR | 22.0 | 18.2 to 25.7 | 12.4 to 31.6 | 90% | 67% | 33% | 8% | 2% | inside our 90% range: 27.0 |
| Cooper Lord | FPL | 20.6 | 17.0 to 24.3 | 11.3 to 30.0 | 86% | 58% | 23% | 5% | 1% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Blake Acres | INT | 20.2 | 16.6 to 23.8 | 11.0 to 29.5 | 84% | 54% | 21% | 5% | 0% | outside our 90% range: 32.0 |
| Nick Haynes | INT | 17.9 | 14.4 to 21.3 | 9.1 to 26.7 | 72% | 34% | 10% | 1% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 26.0 |
| Ben Ainsworth | HFFR | 17.1 | 13.7 to 20.5 | 8.5 to 25.8 | 66% | 30% | 8% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 19.0 |
| Lachlan Cowan | BPL | 16.8 | 13.5 to 20.2 | 8.2 to 25.4 | 66% | 26% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Will Hayward | INT | 16.6 | 13.2 to 19.9 | 8.0 to 25.1 | 64% | 25% | 6% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 14.0 |
| Matthew Cottrell | WL | 15.6 | 12.4 to 18.9 | 7.3 to 23.9 | 51% | 18% | 5% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 17.0 |
| Jacob Weitering | FB | 15.4 | 12.2 to 18.7 | 7.1 to 23.7 | 49% | 17% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 16.0 |
| Wade Derksen | INT | 15.1 | 11.9 to 18.3 | 6.9 to 23.3 | 54% | 18% | 4% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 9.0 |
| Francis Evans | FPR | 13.9 | 10.8 to 17.0 | 6.0 to 21.9 | 40% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry McKay | CHF | 13.3 | 10.2 to 16.3 | 5.5 to 21.1 | 36% | 10% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Marc Pittonet | RK | 12.9 | 9.9 to 15.9 | 5.2 to 20.6 | 31% | 8% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 15.0 |
| Harry Dean | CHB | 12.8 | 9.8 to 15.8 | 5.1 to 20.5 | 30% | 7% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 17.0 |
| Mitch McGovern | HBFL | 12.4 | 9.4 to 15.3 | 4.8 to 20.0 | 26% | 4% | 1% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 11.0 |
| Talor Byrne | HFFL | 11.6 | 8.7 to 14.5 | 4.2 to 19.0 | 20% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 50% range: 9.0 |
| Brodie Kemp | FF | 10.6 | 7.8 to 13.4 | 3.5 to 17.7 | 14% | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | inside our 90% range: 7.0 |